Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Suriname
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Nigeria

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,380$ on 2020-10-25

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $437$ on 2020-10-25

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,144$ on 2020-10-25

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,653$ on 2020-10-25

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,083$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,991.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,991.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,770$ on 2020-10-25

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $525,782$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,635.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 61.5)}}\) (asimptote \(300,635.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,338$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,163.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,163.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $222,241$ on 2020-10-25

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,635,966$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,541,053.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,541,053.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $225,229$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218,379.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 94.9)}}\) (asimptote \(218,379.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,987,859$ on 2020-10-25

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $876,840$ on 2020-10-25

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,986$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,395.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(41,395.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $829,169$ on 2020-10-25

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,594$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,244.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 103.7)}}\) (asimptote \(95,244.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,933$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,797.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,797.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104,661$ on 2020-10-25

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $437,698$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{487,941.2}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 165.0)}}\) (asimptote \(487,941.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,062$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,206.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,206.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $107,632$ on 2020-10-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Suriname recovered 97%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Nigeria recovered 85%
Israel recovered 80%
Senegal recovered 78%
Uzbekistan recovered 76%
El Salvador recovered 71%
United Arab Emirates recovered 67%
Maldives recovered 66%
Bolivia recovered 61%
Venezuela recovered 60%
Tajikistan recovered 57%
Burkina Faso recovered 48%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 46%
Dominican Republic recovered 44%
India recovered 36%
Bangladesh recovered 33%
Iceland recovered 17%
Montenegro recovered 16%
Cabo Verde recovered 11%
Ethiopia recovered 2%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,151$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,978.8}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(85,978.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,739$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,701.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,701.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $410$ on 2020-10-25

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,170$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,183.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,183.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(117.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-10-25

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $344,875$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,107.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.0)}}\) (asimptote \(337,107.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,296$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,331.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,331.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,249$ on 2020-10-25

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,992$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,906.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 98.3)}}\) (asimptote \(60,906.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,130$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,124.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 70.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,124.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,397$ on 2020-10-25